Kyrgyzstan

This is a summary of the quantitative damage assessments conducted over the cities of Osh, Jalal-Abad and Bazar-Kurgan, based on a detailed analysis of post-crisis satellite imagery acquired on 18 and 21 June 2010. A total of 2,843 affected buildings were identified within these affected cities. Of this total, 2,677 buildings were totally destroyed and 166 were severely damaged.
A preliminary assessment of building damage signatures indicates that arson was the probable cause because of the prevalence of destroyed rooftops with visibly intact load-bearing walls, a common signature of fire-related damages. This conclusion is directly supported by the satellite detection of six active fire zones within the city of Osh at 6:25 UTC (12:25 local time) on 12 and 13 June 2010, and two active fire zones within the city of Bazar-Kurgan at 8:10 UTC (2:10 local time) on 13 June 2010. A majority of the affected buildings in Osh and Bazar-Kurgan as identified in the satellite imagery of 18 June fall within these multiple active fire zones, suggesting that a majority of the building destruction likely occurred as a direct result of the detected afternoon fires on 12 and 13 June 2010. Although no active fires were detected in Jalal-Abad, this was likely the result of local cloud cover, and/or the lack of sensor coverage when the fires were active. Because of this lack of corresponding sensor data, it is not possible to identify the probable date & time when building damages occurred in Jalal-Abad.
As illustrated in the three overview maps below, a density analysis of the affected building sites indicated that building damages were highly clustered in multiple zones of destruction. Within these spatial clusters there is a pronounced degree of damage type homogeneity of near total building destruction (90-95%), with sharply defined boundaries between affected and unaffected neighborhoods.
A significant majority of affected buildings are directly accessible from main primary or secondary roads suggesting that the suspected arson attacks were perpetrated by individuals or groups who had specific reasons to restrict their movement to these main transport routes. Almost all affected buildings appear to have been residential or situated within residential neighborhoods, however there are a few cases of destroyed or severely damaged industrial warehouses or commercial / government facilities. No damages have been observed to the transportation network (e.g. roads, bridges) or other key infrastructure sites within the city. Although no visible damages to major telecommunication / utility towers were noted, it was not possible to confirm reports of damages to utility lines because of limited satellite sensor resolution. The airports in Osh and Jalal-Abad were unaffected.

This is a quantitative damage summary for the city of Jalal-Abad based on a detailed analysis of crisis satellite imagery acquired on the morning of 21 June 2010. A total of 330 affected buildings were identified within the city of Jalal-Abad. Of this total, 291 buildings were totally destroyed and 39 were severely damaged. An additional 28 potentially damaged buildings were identified outside the main damage clusters but were likely the result of normal construction/demolition activities unrelated to the recent conflict. In contrast with the city of Osh, no SOS distress signs or roadblocks were identified within Jalal-Abad.
As illustrated in the overview map on page three, a density analysis of the affected building sites indicated there is a single major cluster of destruction located along two major intersecting roads within the Kugartskaya Dolina area of the city. This single major cluster contains 69.4% of all identified damages for Jalal-Abad. Two smaller clusters have also been identified in the Khazret-Ayub suburb. Within these three spatial clusters there is a high degree of damage type homogeneity of almost 90% building destruction. The boundaries between affected and unaffected neighborhoods in Jalal-Abad are significantly more diffuse and poorly defined than in Osh.
A preliminary assessment of building damage signatures indicates that arson was the probable cause because of the prevalence of destroyed rooftops with visibly intact load-bearing walls, a common signature of fire-related damages. Although no active fires were detected in Jalal-Abad by satellite sensors (unlike in Osh and Bazar-Kurgan), this was likely the result of local cloud cover and/or the lack of sensor coverage when the fires were active. Because of this lack of corresponding sensor data, it is not possible to identify the probable date of when building damages occurred in Jalal-Abad.
A significant majority of affected buildings are directly accessible from main primary or secondary roads suggesting that the suspected arson attacks were perpetrated by individuals or groups who restricted their movement to these main transport routes. Almost all affected buildings appear to have been residential or situated within residential neighborhoods, however there are a few cases of destroyed or severely damaged industrial warehouses or commercial / government facilities. No damages have been observed to the transportation network (e.g. roads, bridges) or other key infrastructure sites within the city. The airport is likely fully operational and unaffected.

DAMAGE ASSESSMENT SUMMARY:
This is a quantitative damage summary for the city of Osh based on a detailed analysis of crisis satellite imagery acquired on the morning of 18 June 2010. A total of 1,877 affected buildings were identified within the city of Osh. Of this total, 1,805 buildings were totally destroyed and 72 were severely damaged. A further 73 SOS distress signs and 32 roadblocks were also identified as likely indications of distressed ethnic-Uzbek neighborhoods. As illustrated in the overview map on page 3, a density analysis of the affected building sites indicated there are seven major clusters of destruction located along an approximate east-west axis through the center of the city. Within these spatial clusters there is a pronounced degree of damage type homogeneity of near total building destruction, with sharply defined boundaries between affected and unaffected neighborhoods.
A preliminary assessment of building damage signatures indicates that arson was the probable cause because of the prevalence of destroyed rooftops with visibly intact load-bearing walls, a common signature of fire-related damages; a finding supported by the satellite detection of six active fire zones within the city at 6:25 UTC (12:25 local time) on 12 and 13 June 2010. 52% of affected buildings identified in the satellite imagery of 18 June also fall within the six active fire zones, suggesting that a majority of the building destruction likely occurred as a result of the detected afternoon fires on 12 and 13 June 2010.
A significant majority of affected buildings are directly accessible from main primary or secondary roads suggesting that the suspected arson attacks were perpetrated by individuals or groups who restricted their movement to these main transport routes. Almost all affected buildings appear to have been residential or situated within residential neighborhoods, however there are a few cases of destroyed or severely damaged industrial warehouses or commercial / government facilities. No damages have been observed to the transportation network (e.g. roads, bridges) or other key infrastructure sites within the city.
There is compelling evidence to suggest that there are several ethnic-Uzbek neighborhoods within the city of Osh that are potentially still heavily populated and relatively undamaged by the reported arson attacks. These distressed neighborhoods have been identified by the presence of multiple road blocks at main road and bridge entry points, as well as the presence of multiple "SOS" signs painted on interior roads within clearly defined residential areas. In most of these neighborhoods, a large majority of buildings appear to be undamaged and thus could still provide shelter to thousands of local residents. A small number of damaged buildings identified outside of the main damage clusters may be unrelated to the recent conflict, possibly due to recent construction / demolition or accidental house fire.

DAMAGE ASSESSMENT SUMMARY:
A total of 433 affected buildings were identified within the city of Bazar-Kurgan. Of this total, 401 buildings were totally destroyed and a further 32 buildings were severely damaged. As illustrated in the overview map on page 3, a density analysis of the affected building sites indicated there are multiple clusters of building damages, located in the center and north-east of the city. Four of the largest clusters are described in detail below with a corresponding focus map within the report.
A preliminary assessment of building damage signatures indicates that arson was the probable cause because of the prevalence of destroyed rooftops with visibly intact load-bearing walls, a common signature of fire-related damages; a finding supported by the satellite detection of two active fire zones within the city at 8:10 UTC (2:10 local time) on 13 June 2010. 72% of affected buildings identified in the very high resolution satellite of the 18 June also fall within the two active fire zones, suggesting that a large majority of the identified building destruction likely occurred as a result of the detected fires on 13 June 2010.
Almost all affected buildings appear to have been residential or situated within residential neighborhoods, however there are a few cases of destroyed or severely damaged industrial warehouses or commercial / government facilities. No damages have been observed to the transportation network (e.g. roads, bridges) or other key infrastructure sites within the city. Virtually all affected buildings are directly accessible from main primary or secondary roads suggesting that the suspected arson attacks were perpetrated by individuals or groups who restricted their movement to these main transport routes. In contrast with Osh, no SOS distress signs and only three possible roadblocks were detected in Bazar-Kurgan. A small number of damaged buildings identified outside of the main damage clusters may be unrelated to the recent conflict, possibly due to recent construction / demolition or accidental house fire. No damages were identified in the town of Nooken, on the west bank of the Kara Unkur River.

This is a quantitative damage summary for the city of Osh, based on a detailed analysis of crisis satellite imagery acquired on the morning of 18 June 2010. A total of 1,807 affected buildings were identified within the city of Osh. Of this total, 1,749 buildings were totally destroyed and 58 were severely damaged. As illustrated in the overview map below, a density analysis of the affected building sites indicated there are 6 main zones of destruction, located in the center of the city. Within each zone, there are multiple, smaller clusters of affected buildings. A preliminary assessment of building damage signatures indicates that arson was the probable cause because of the prevalence of destroyed rooftops with visibly intact load-bearing walls, a common signature of fire-related damages; a finding supported by the satellite detection of 5-6 active fire zones within the city at 6:25 UTC (12:25 local time) on 12 and 13 June 2010 (see UNOSAT Emergency Analysis 1). Almost all affected buildings appear to have been residential or situated within residential neighborhoods, however there are a few cases of destroyed or severely damaged industrial warehouses or commercial / government facilities. No damages have been observed to the transportation network (e.g. roads, bridges) or other key infrastructure sites within the city. There is compelling evidence to suggest that there are several ethnic-Uzbek neighborhoods within the city of Osh that are potentially still heavily populated and relatively undamaged by the reported arson attacks. These distressed neighborhoods have been identified by the presence of multiple road blocks at main road and bridge entry points, as well as the presence of multiple "SOS" signs painted on interior roads within clearly defined residential areas. In most of these neighborhoods, a large majority of buildings appear to be undamaged and thus could still provide shelter to thousands of local residents.
ANALYSIS NOTES: the following analysis is based on crisis satellite imagery from 18 June 2010 and pre-conflict satellite imagery from 21 July 2002 (from Google Earth). Affected buildings were classified as destroyed or severely damaged by standard image interpretation methods. The damage building figures likely represent minimum estimates. Actual damages could be higher, especially for severe and moderate levels of building damages which are more difficult to identify with a high degree of confidence from the available satellite imagery. This is an initial damage assessment and has not yet been validated on the ground.
Please send additions/corrections to UNITAR/UNOSAT at emergencymapping@unosat.org.
Map scale for A4: 1:40,000; Projection: UTM Zone 43N, Datum: WGS-84.

This is a quantitative damage summary for the city of Bazar-Kurgan, based on a detailed analysis of crisis satellite imagery acquired on the morning of 18 June 2010. A total of 433 affected buildings were identified within the city of Bazar-Kurgan. Of this total, 401 buildings were totally destroyed and a further 32 buildings were severely damaged. As illustrated in the overview map below, a density analysis of the affected building sites indicated there are two main zones of building damages, located in the center and north-east of the city. Within each zone, there are multiple, smaller clusters of affected buildings. A preliminary assessment of building damage signatures indicates that arson was the probable cause because of the prevalence of destroyed rooftops with visibly intact load-bearing walls, a common signature of fire-related damages; a finding supported by the satellite detection of two active fire zones within the city at 8:10 UTC (2:10 local time) on 13 June 2010 (see UNOSAT Emergency Analysis 1). Almost all affected buildings appear to have been residential or situated within residential neighborhoods, however there are a few cases of destroyed or severely damaged industrial warehouses or commercial/government facilities. No damages have been observed to the transportation network (e.g. roads, bridges) or other key infrastructure sites within the city. Virtually all affected buildings are directly accessible from main primary or secondary roads.
ANALYSIS NOTES: the following damage analysis is based on crisis satellite imagery from 18 June 2010 and pre-conflict satellite imagery from 21 July 2002 (provided by Google Earth). Affected buildings were classified as destroyed or severely damaged by standard image interpretation methods. The figures on building damages likely represent minimum estimates. Actual damages could be higher, especially for severe and moderate levels of building damages which are more difficult to identify with a high degree of confidence from the available satellite imagery. This is an initial damage assessment and has not yet been validated on the ground.
Please send additions/corrections to UNITAR/UNOSAT at emergencymapping@unosat.org.
Map scale for A4: 1:25,000; Projection: UTM Zone 43N, Datum: WGS-84.

Satellite-detected Roadblocks and "SOS" Signs suggest Probable Ethnic-Uzbek Neighborhood in Distress - approximate location between Cheremyshki and Dostuk areas, south of Nookatskya road, Osh, Kyrgyzstan. Based on a detailed review of crisis satellite imagery acquired the morning of 18 June 2010, there is compelling evidence to suggest that there are several ethnic-Uzbek neighborhoods within the city of Osh that are potentially still heavily populated and relatively undamaged by the reported arson attacks. These distressed neighborhoods have been identified by the presence of multiple road blocks at main road and bridge entry points, as well as the presence of multiple "SOS" signs painted on interior roads within clearly defined residential areas. In most of these identified neighborhoods, a significant majority of buildings appear to be undamaged and thus could still provide shelter to potentially thousands of local residents. Within the suspected ethnic-Uzbek neighborhood identified in this emergency report as Location 2 (see map below), there are ten "SOS" signs, and five roadblocks. The roadblocks are situated on main roads surrounding the apparent boundary of the neighborhood. The approximate location is situated between Cheremyshki and Dostuk areas, south of Nookatskya road, west of the Osh River. This crisis assessment was produced in direct support of international and local emergency staff on the ground in Osh, with the understanding that the assessment conclusions are based exclusively on satellite imagery analysis with an associated moderate degree of uncertainty, and have not yet been validated on the ground.
Please send additions/corrections to UNITAR/UNOSAT at emergencymapping@unosat.org.
Map scale for A4: 1:10,000; Projection: UTM Zone 43N; Datum: WGS-84.

Satellite-detected Roadblocks and "SOS" Signs suggest Probable Ethnic-Uzbek Neighborhood in Distress - approximate location between Uchar and Toloykon (Tuleyken) areas, southern Osh, Kyrgyzstan. Based on a detailed review of crisis satellite imagery acquired the morning of 18 June 2010, there is compelling evidence to suggest that there are several ethnic-Uzbek neighborhoods within the city of Osh that are potentially still heavily populated and relatively undamaged by the reported arson attacks. These distressed neighborhoods have been identified by the presence of multiple roadblocks at main road and bridge entry points, as well as the presence of multiple "SOS" signs painted on interior roads within clearly defined residential areas. In most of these identified neighborhoods, a significant majority of buildings appear to be undamaged and thus could still provide shelter to potentially thousands of local residents.
Within the suspected ethnic-Uzbek neighborhood identified in this emergency report as Location 1 (see map below), there are sixteen "SOS" signs, and eight roadblocks. The roadblocks are situated on main roads and bridges which cross the small river running along the northern boundary of the neighborhood. The approximate location of this neighborhood is west of the Osh River, between the urban areas of Uchar and Toloykon (Tuleyken) in southern Osh.
This crisis assessment was produced in direct support of international and local emergency staff on the ground in Osh, with the understanding that the assessment conclusions are based exclusively on satellite imagery analysis with an associated moderate degree of uncertainty, and have not yet been validated on the ground.
Please send additions/corrections to UNITAR/UNOSAT at emergencymapping@unosat.org.
Map scale for A4: 1:12,000; Projection: UTM Zone 43N; Datum : WGS-84.

This is an initial, qualitative damage summary for the city of Osh, based on crisis satellite imagery acquired the morning of 18 June 2010. Within the city there are multiple sites of near total building destruction which is likely to total in the low thousands (approximately 2-3,000). West of the Osh River, immediately north and south of the Sulyaman Mt. Park there are three major clusters of building destruction (est. hundreds). The majority of building destruction in the city however, is concentrated east of the Osh River, between the neighborhoods of Manas-Ata and Kalinin, divided by the main route of M41. There are multiple areas of near total building destruction with clearly defined boundaries between affected and unaffected neighborhoods. The largest concentration of building destruction is located at the intersection of the main routes M41 and A370 (see image below). A preliminary assessment of building damage signatures indicates that arson was the probable cause because of the prevalence of destroyed rooftops with visibly intact load-bearing walls, a common signature of fire-related damages; a finding supported by the satellite detection of 5-6 active fire zones within the city at 6:25 UTC (12:25 local time) on 12 and 13 June 2010 (see UNOSAT Emergency Analysis 1). Almost all affected buildings appear to have been residential or situated within residential neighborhoods, however there are a few cases of destroyed or severely damaged industrial warehouses or commercial / government facilities. No damages have been observed to the transportation network (e.g. roads, bridges) or other key infrastructure sites within the city; however there are multiple roadblocks (composed of cars or unidentified debris) scattered on main roads either within or adjacent to major neighborhoods of building damages. There are multiple instances of "SOS" signs being painted (some with letters 5m high) along main residential roads in the western section of Osh (Dostuk), residential buildings in this area do not appear to have been directly affected. A more detailed quantitative building damage assessment for Osh will be released in a forthcoming report. This is an initial damage assessment and has not yet been validated on the ground. Please send additions / corrections to UNITAR / UNOSAT at emergencymapping@unosat.org. Map scale for A4: 1:2,000; Projection : UTM Zone 43N
Datum : WGS-84.

This is an initial, qualitative damage summary for the city of Bazar-Kurgan, based on crisis satellite imagery acquired the morning of 18 June 2010. There are two main zones of building damages, located in the center and north-east of the city. Within each zone, there are multiple, smaller clusters of affected buildings, the vast majority of which appear to be totally destroyed. A preliminary assessment of building damage signatures indicates that arson was the probable cause because of the prevalence of destroyed rooftops with visibly intact load-bearing walls, a common signature of fire-related damages; a finding supported by the satellite detection of two active fire zones within the city at 8:10 UTC (2:10 local time) on 13 June 2010 (see UNOSAT Emergency Analysis 1). Almost all affected buildings appear to have been residential or situated within residential neighborhoods, however there are a few cases of destroyed or severely damaged industrial warehouses or commercial / government facilities. No damages have been observed to the transportation network (e.g. roads, bridges) or other key infrastructure sites within the city. Virtually all affected buildings are directly accessible from main primary or secondary roads. A preliminary estimate of the total number of destroyed/damaged buildings within the city is approximately 200 to 300. A more detailed quantitative building damage assessment for Bazar-Kurgan will be released in a forthcoming report. This is an initial damage assessment and has not yet been validated on the ground. Please send additions / corrections to UNITAR / UNOSAT at emergencymapping@unosat.org. Map scale for A4: 1:2,000; Projection : UTM Zone 43N, Datum : WGS-84.

Within the city of Bazar-Kurgan at least two separate active fire zones were detected with satellite imagery in the northern and southern sections of the city, on the east bank of the river Unkyur at 08:10 UTC (2:10 local time), 13 June 2010. These active fire locations were detected over mixed residential and commercial building areas. No active fires have been detected today (14 June 2010) as of 13:30UTC. No active fires were detected before the 12th June 2010. These fires were identified by the MODIS Aqua and Terra satellites covering the time period of 9 - 14 June 2010, and represent the detection of thermal anomalies (active fires) within a 1km2 zone. Within each square zone shown on the map below, there could be multiple separate burning objects. Although this satellite data product cannot discriminate between naturally-occurring fires and those resulting from arson or armed conflict, an assessment has been made of the chronology and spatial context of this data and it is highly probable that these detected active fire locations are directly linked to the reported civil unrest within the city of Bazar-Kurgan. Note: it is possible that not all active fires/thermal anomalies have been detected in this area because of intermittent cloud cover, limited fire size, or because the fire(s) were not active at the time of satellite data capture, thus these results could represent minimum estimates. This analysis has not yet been validated in the field. Please send ground feedback to UNITAR / UNOSAT at emergencymapping@unosat.org. Map scale for A4: 1:50,000; Projection : UTM Zone 43N ; Datum : WGS-84.

Within the city of Osh at least four and potentially five separate active fire zones were detected with satellite imagery on 13 June 2010 at 6:25UTC (12:25 local time). These fire zones were located exclusively on the eastern side of the Osh River, over mixed residential and commercial building areas. No active fires have been detected today (14 June 2010) as of 13:30UTC. A single active fire zone was detected on the north-western side of the Sulayman Mt. Park, covering an area of predominantly residential buildings. No active fires were detected before 12 June 2010. An additional two active fire zones were located north in the city of Bazar-Kurgan at 8:10 UTC (2:10 local time) on 13 June 2010 covered in separate report. These fires were identified by the MODIS Aqua and Terra satellites covering the time period of 9 - 14 June 2010, and represent the detection of thermal anomalies (active fires) within a 1km2 zone. Within each square zone shown on the map below, there could be multiple separate burning objects. Although this satellite data product cannot discriminate between naturally-occurring fires and those resulting from arson or armed conflict, an assessment has been made of the chronology and spatial context of this data and it is highly probable that these detected active fire locations are directly linked to the reported civil unrest within the city of Osh. Note: it is possible that not all active fires/thermal anomalies have been detected in this area because of intermittent cloud cover, limited fire size, or because the fire(s) were not active at the time of satellite data capture, thus these results could represent minimum estimates. This analysis has not yet been validated in the field. Please send ground feedback to UNITAR / UNOSAT at emergencymapping@unosat.org. Map scale for A4: 1:50,000; Projection : UTM Zone 43N ; Datum : WGS-84.