Introduction to Macroeconomic Modelling and Forecasting (MEFMI/UNITAR Partnership Course)
Econometric modelling and forecasting have become some of the most important tools for policy makers of the day in quantifying the impacts of various policies on their economies. To tackle practical problems, policy makers and business managers need to build empirical models. In developing countries, however, when applying those models for various analysis, they have to overcome various problems that do not exist in developed economies. One of the frequently observed problems is the lack of data. This fact not only restricts the scope of econometric analysis, but also requires highly developed skills for extracting meaningful quantitative information from the limited available data.
The current workshop will be the first e-learning course in this area and will rely mostly on the MEFMI Macroeconomic Modeling and Forecasting Manual of 2012 and most of its content will be fully extracted from the Manual.
At the end of the course, the participants should be able to:
- Understand the need for theory in Macroeconomic Modeling
- Understand the interactions between Macroeconomic Blocks
- Describe macroeconomic blocks
- Estimate the equations in the Macroeconomic Blocks
- Diagnose time series data
- Build a prototype model and
- Understand other forecasting models
The course consists of the following modules:
- Module 1- Introduction and theoretical/logical framework
- Module 2 - Description of macroeconomic blocks and estimation of the equations in the macroeconomic block
- Module 3 - Diagnostics of time series data and testing for stationarity
- Module 4 - Building a prototype model and
- Module 5 - Other forecasting methods.
Successful enrolment and completion of this course will form the basis of selection for participation in a one week regional workshop on advanced modelling and forecasting to be held subsequently.
In order to ensure the best possible outreach, the course will be delivered through e-learning. Through a multiple-instructional setting, the goal is to achieve the learning objectives by means of learning technologies that match personal learning styles and by the inclusion of non-linear learning that aims at the development of just-in-time skills of adult learners.
At the same time, in order to allow participants maximum flexibility of scheduling, learning will be conducted in an asynchronous manner. Using a state-of-the-art training architecture, MEFMI will combine self-learning with assessments and online discussions. The pedagogy - adapted specifically to professionals in full-time work - will help train participants through various experiences: absorb (read); do (activity); interact (socialize); reflect (relate to one’s own reality).
The course will provide hands on training in the use of EViews econometric software package using practicals contained in MEFMI Macroeconomic Modeling and Forecasting Manual of 2012.
Participation in the course requires access to an eViews software.
This course is highly recommended for junior and middle staff of Research Departments in Central Banks and of Macroeconomic Policy Analysis Divisions in Ministries of Finance/Development/Planning and Statistics Offices. The course is also relevant for researchers, analysts and other individuals dealing with issues related to Macroeconomic analysis, modeling and forecasting.
A certificate of completion will be issued by MEFMI to all participants who complete the course-related assignments and assessments successfully.
Recommended hardware and software requirements for taking our e-learning courses:
- Platform: Windows XP sp3, Vista sp2, Windows 7 sp1, MacOS X.
- Hardware: 2 GB of RAM and higher for Vista and Windows 7.
- Software: Eviews Software, Microsoft Word, Microsoft Excel, Microsoft PowerPoint and Adobe Acrobat Reader (downloadable for free at adobe.com).
- Browser: Internet Explorer 8 or higher; Mozilla Firefox 8 or higher.
- Internet connection: 128kbps and higher.
- Note: JavaScript, pop-ups & cookies must be enabled.
For further information about the course, please email:
Dr. Sehliselo Mpofu
Director - Macroeconomic Management Programme
The Macroeconomic and Financial Management Institute of Eastern and Southern Africa (MEFMI)
Email: sehliselo.mpofu(at)mefmi.org
Mr. Sayed Timuno
Programme Manager – Macroeconomic Analysis and Modeling
The Macroeconomic and Financial Management Institute of Eastern and Southern Africa (MEFMI)
Email: sayed.timuno(at)mefmi.org